One of the major consequences of a warming climate is the potential for increased global aridity. If there is not a substantial reduction in greenhouse gases, the IPCC posits that there is a 62 % chance that by 2081-2100 global temperatures could be more than 4 ℃ higher than in pre-industrial times. The 10 hottest years ever recorded have all occurred since 1998, and 2016 was the hottest year on record. Since 1880, the surface temperature of the planet has risen by about 0.8 ℃, and each of the past three decades has been successively warmer than the preceding one. In their Fifth Assessment Report, the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concluded that the climate system of the planet is warming at a significant rate. Obviously, while there are many sources of uncertainties and limitations when predicting changes in Aridity Index (AI), there remains a high degree of confidence that aridity will continue to expand globally. In a similar modelling study, it is estimated that global drylands could expand by as much as 23 % and that as much as 80 % of this will occur in developing countries. They projected that under a high greenhouse gas emission scenario, by the end of the 21st century, global drylands will expand by about 10 % (or 5.8 × 106 km2). Changes in the Aridity Index for Imminent Future, Near Future and Far Future are each calculated relative to Current conditions Feng and Fu concluded that in the past sixty years, global drylands have significantly expanded, and will continue to expand into the future. 5) climate models under a business-as-usual (RCP 8.5) scenario (see Box: Representative Concentration Pathways on the right). ![]() The maps are based on the ensemble average of 27 CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project v.
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